Irene, Maida and Mike — a Tale of Delusion, Promise and Possibility
Filing has begun for the 2009 city elections. Several of the odd-numbered wards will surely be engulfed in battles to decide new aldermen and Comptroller Darlene Green will likely face opposition in her re-election bid, but no race in the March primary will draw as much attention as Mayor Francis Slay’s attempt to win a third term.
Already Slay has drawn one Democratic challenger. Quite frankly, for someone practically guaranteed a challenger, this is the one his campaign advisers were perhaps most glad to see file, considering he defeated her by more than 20 percentage points just four years ago. A landslide by any measure.
Which is not to say Irene J. Smith is not a qualified and accomplished candidate. Besides being the former alderman of the 1st Ward, she is also an attorney and former municipal judge. But she does have her negatives too. She has never won a race outside of her 98% black northside ward. She didn’t fare very well with voters outside of north St. Louis in her 2005 race. And then there’s that peeing incident…
In 2001, during a filibuster of Slay’s controversial redistricting of city wards, which broke up the northside’s largest voting ward and critically damaged African-American political power, then-Alderwoman Smith was not allowed to leave the floor to go to the bathroom.
After many hours and continued refusal from then-Aldermanic President Jim Shrewsbury to allow Smith a bathroom break, she squatted over a trash can as supporters held blankets up around her.
Smith has for years maintained that she did not urinate behind those blankets… into a trashcan… on live television… and she successfully fought a misdemeanor public urination charge against her. But the incident was reported all over the world and the video was carried on national news, making the whole event one of the worst in recent St. Louis history, for many reasons.
In a 2002 guest column on TheCommonSpace.org, I wrote:
For me, Alderwoman Irene Smith’s action was a heroic demonstration of self-sacrifice, completely uncommon in this time and place. For me, and for most people I knew — black and white — the redistricting politics of a year ago were no more than an act of passive-aggressive bullying on the part of newly elected Mayor Francis Slay and his Southside political machine. This simple act of bullying would ultimately result in the weakening of black political power and the worsening of already poor race relations in a city known for its poor race relations.
I still believe that. Smith should forever be applauded for her sacrifice. But it should also be well understood how much she did sacrifice that day. Among those things was surely any chance at winning citywide election in the foreseeable future.
Her actions on that day will always be better appreciated among black northside voters than their white southside or central corridor counterparts. And that robs Smith of any chance of winning in the central corridor or having any kind of a respectable showing on the south side — components necessary to an African-American winning citywide election in St. Louis.
North St. Louis alone can’t elect a citywide officer. Using last month’s election results — certainly the highest African-American voter turnout on record — the northside’s 10 wards still just narrowly produced more votes for Democrat Barack Obama (about 100 more votes) than the southside’s 13 white wards, even though the north wards voted more than 98% for Obama (versus the southside’s 72%). The key is the five central wards. Call them “swing wards”.
St. Louis city remains one of the most racial segregated cities in America. The 10 northside wards are 93% black. The 13 southside wards are 80% white (with three over 95%). The city’s only hope of modern civility comes at its core. The five central wards are split roughly 51-43 black to white. And the three central-most southern wards also come close to that 50-50 ratio.
The formula to Francis Slay’s past electoral success has been a simple one: take all of south St. Louis (which has a higher population and therefore more voters), win 50+1 in central, and nevermind the northside. (Some would argue that not only does he campaign that way, but he also governs that way.) Hate it or love it, it wins elections.
The formula for an African-American candidate has been almost the exact inverse — almost: take all of north St. Louis, carry the central wards by a large margin (like 60%), and take a bite out of the southern base — particularly those southside wards with large black populations, like 8, 9 and 20.
This is why Irene Smith can’t win. Nevermind most voters don’t know her and she can’t raise enough money to fund a proper introduction in just 90 days, but the 2001 urination incident sours her chances with central voters.
So if not Irene Smith, than who?
The other most likely challenger is State Senator Maida Coleman. But can she win?
Yes.
Coleman certainly has her detractors, but her negatives are not nearly as high as Slay’s or Smith’s. She has a legislative career marked with accomplishments that can definitely be highlighted, including her time as the top Democrat in the Senate. She has been an outspoken critic against Slay and Governor Matt Blunt’s handling of St. Louis Public Schools. And as a woman, she would stand to become St. Louis’ first woman mayor — that prospect alone can help garner the attention of female voters in central and southern wards.
The challeges for Coleman will be that many people outside of her senate district (which includes almost half of city voters and travels far north and far south) aren’t aware of her. And there is that issue with a past bankruptcy which came out when she was mulling a run for state Treasurer a few years ago, but with the state of the current economy and people suffering throughout our city, Coleman overcoming her past financial troubles may actually endear her to voters.
The other possible challenger remains Slay’s biggest threat — License Collector Mike McMillan, the charismatic former alderman from the centrally located 19th Ward.
Making clear that Slay sees McMillan as his biggest threat, sources say his campaign staff, many of whom are also lobbyists for the city’s largest corporations, spent lots of time over the past couple of months threatening McMillan’s campaign donors, inferring that their business dealings with the city will suffer if they supported McMillan.
The pressure, those sources believe, may have left the pragmatic McMillan carefully examining his chances of winning before determining his entrance into the race. But time is running out. Filing closes on January 2, 2009. Even in a short 90-day campaign like the one Lewis Reed won over Jim Shrewsbury in March 2006, Reed announced his intentions to run on October 19, already allowing more time than a challenger to Francis Slay would have to launch a successful campaign.
In the end, in a city half-jokingly known for its two political parties — black Democrats and white Democrats — the leader of the reigning party continues to enjoy the lack of leadership in the minority party.
At some point, elections become about more than winning, but about leadership. And this city is in desperate need of some right now.
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28 Comments
Turd Ferguson
Tuesday, 25th November 2008 at 3:30 PM
Excellent article. Nuff said.
Jackson
Tuesday, 25th November 2008 at 4:51 PM
A four way race could make things dicey for Slay. I can image a Slay, Favazza, Coleman and Smith primary being pretty competitive for Slay and Coleman.
Antonio D. French
Tuesday, 25th November 2008 at 6:42 PM
That match up would be pretty interesting. I think Favazza does more damage to Slay than Smith does to Coleman, basically equalizing the north and south wards. It would then become a battle for the central wards.
Josephine
Tuesday, 25th November 2008 at 6:47 PM
A change for Mayor would be a welcome one. Coleman would unfortunately find some difficulty overcoming her past financial troubles with the voters. I would find it hard to believe that her circumstance would be enduring to voters since she would be in charge of running the finances for the entire city of St. Louis. This is hard to swallow no matter what her accomplishments are in the Missouri Senate.
I would still lean to McMillan as the better candidate and the person who could bring the city beyond what has now become “typical.”
Star Jones
Tuesday, 25th November 2008 at 7:21 PM
Any candidate,including my mutt dog would make a better Mayor than that damn Slay!
Daniel
Tuesday, 25th November 2008 at 8:02 PM
Hi ADF,
please get in contact.
d
kjoe
Wednesday, 26th November 2008 at 11:50 AM
One of those mysteries of life for me—-In 2006, Slay’s organization outspent his opponents in the school board election 7 to 1—and they still lost. In 2007, two very fine people were elected over his opposition again—Katie Wessling and David Jackson.
Slay’s most outlandish transgression, to me, is his alliance with Blunt and Sinquefield and right wing forces on the state board of education to disenfranchise st. louis voters regarding the control of their schools. Almost the first action they took, once they had control, was to hire TexasCan—just one example of their bad judgement.
It seems to me that someone like David Jackson would be able to challenge the mayor—I wonder if those unhappy with Mayor Slay because of school issues are likely to unite behind anyone.
weathered fool
Wednesday, 26th November 2008 at 9:03 PM
There was (is still?) a deep anger/hunger among many of those disillusioned and disenfranchised SLPS supporters to DUMP the mayor at the next election cycle. Those feelings were not exploited to save the schools from state control because of a lack of backbone. (Local 420 leadership was/is weak-kneed)
We need a unifying, inspiring leader. Unfortunately, none of the those mentioned by AF have shown that.
The defeat of Slay’s money in the School Board election was beautiful (there were anti-Slay candidate volunteers at nearly every polling place all day). But there was also not much incentive for Slay’s people to turnout. School Board elections don’t draw the interest of a mayoral election. Slay may be able to rally a few more voters if it is his own ass on the line.
Also, I despise the disgraceful “reporting” the Post has vomited out when it comes to the SLPS, but a while back (two years?) they came out with a very good and comprehensive article that explained fairly the Irene Smith incident. I respect her for what she sacrificed.
anon
Thursday, 27th November 2008 at 11:57 AM
The reason no inspiring leader has shown up is because of the insistence for unfathomable reasons that the person who challenges Slay needs to be someone who is already part of the known political landscape. Recycling the same people over and over is not what gets people to the ballot box. The whole lesson of the Obama victory is that a new face with sincere beliefs can overcome an “establishment” candidate. This town just doesn’t get it and that’s why we keep running in these little circle. McMillan may have been the closest to a fresh face out of everyone mentioned but his willingness to step back shows he wants to be part of the political machine, not an alternative to it, so he’s losing his appeal. As long as the insiders keep looking for insiders to run and refuse to consider new blood, this is the kind of mess we’ll be stuck with.
Jackson
Sunday, 30th November 2008 at 2:15 PM
If he doesn’t run now, McMillan will be dead in the water in 2013. Not that I’d complain.
Anon Southside
Monday, 1st December 2008 at 5:39 PM
Mike is very smart and is a cunning politician who has been doing this since he was 19(?) so he is as part of the “machine” as anybody. However, he has positioned himself as an outsider who can reach across the City to make projects happen. The other thing to note is that if he really wanted to win in 2013 he would run now and make sure that he was the top dog during the next race. However….raising the money to run an effective campaign for 90 days will be a chore even for the prolific McMillan.
So then…..
Whats Maida’s and/or Irene’s appeal to Southside and Central corridor?
Whats Favazza’s appeal to Northside and Central corridor?
I see the Mayor winning again…but the fun really begins AFTER this term when it’s really wide open for Mayor
anon
Monday, 1st December 2008 at 9:55 PM
Fun is over this time if Slay wins again. I’ll encourage everyone I know who has kids to desert the city. It won’t take much.
I’m southside and I can tell you Maida’s appeal. She’s a decent human being who won’t sacrifice small schoolchildren while schmoozing with rich county dwellers and giving them tax breaks to keep their fancy offices downtown while they live out west.
ashriver
Tuesday, 2nd December 2008 at 1:48 PM
Not to be a shameless self-promoter, but we had a similar (though less thorough) discussion at showmeprogress.com recently:
http://blog.showmeprogress.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2071
I was advocating for Slay’s removal, but one of the issues that frequently came up in the comments was that Coleman was not a proven administrator. Does anyone have thoughts about that claim?
Katherine Wessling
Tuesday, 2nd December 2008 at 2:21 PM
Thanks for that link, ashriver. That was enlightening and depressing as it showed how completely so many people have been either uninformed or misled regarding what happened with the school board situation. We didn’t rally to get four parents elected to the board because we were tryng to protect jobs. We didn’t work so, so hard and spend time away from our families because we wanted to watch our children suffer while we saved a janitor’s job. We did this because we have no interest, none at all, except trying to make education the priority and cutting what isn’t helping that from the budget. Slay’s board thought there was always money for consultants and big buffets at their meetings and all sorts of things that didn’t help our kids one bit. The parent-majority board, had we been given a chance, was not about to waste money on consultants and food and unnecessary superintendent searches. We want the money spent on what the kids need to learn. Anyone who thinks any of us did this to save jobs for people we don’t even know has not done enough self-education on the issue to be able to make a good point in the debate.
Clark
Tuesday, 2nd December 2008 at 5:00 PM
Katherine, I’d welcome your comments over there, as well as any posts you’d like to write on the subject. I’ll confess ignorance, as I’m relatively new to Saint Louis.
kevi kev
Wednesday, 3rd December 2008 at 11:35 PM
it would be nice to re elect mayor slay again in order that we might torture him in our hearts and minds…
David L. Jackson, Jr.
Sunday, 7th December 2008 at 2:50 AM
Thank you Katherine for letting the community hear from true parents who are not only interested and committed in ensuring their children received equal and quality education, but all ensuring that all children in the City get good and quality education. I truly believe Mayor Slay will be elected again as Mayor of this great city. Hopefully, Mayor Slay will have learned from his many misteps not only with the Black community, but with the school issue, over saturated loft projects downtown, little support of small and minority developers with assisting with neighborhood housing development, lack of true minority and women owned business opportunities and true diverse full automony leadership in his administration. Mayor Slay has been progressive and productive for this City in many, many ways, however its the misteps that have and will judge him in the future. Change can come, hopefully in Mayor Slay.
counter
Sunday, 7th December 2008 at 1:15 PM
“true diverse full automony leadership in his administration”
I’m not sure what this means.
Two of the three members of the Board of Estimate, the city’s top fiscal authority that must approve all spending, are African American. The executive director of the economic development agency and his deputy director are African American. The top city operations administrator is African American. The chief of the employment and training agency is African American. The president of the board of public service (who oversees all public works contracts) the supply commissioner (who chooses all city suppliers) are African American. The public safety director and the police chief are African American. The mayor’s chief of staff, the chief of development, the head of community development, and the chief engineer are women . . .
Independent Voter
Monday, 8th December 2008 at 6:35 PM
counter,
Great observation! Additionally, Darlene Greeen, Comptroller for St. Louis City, is also African American and a woman. I don’t know what kind of miracle they are looking for from a mayor with all these African Americans in authoritative positions!
Turd Ferguson
Friday, 12th December 2008 at 4:04 PM
Vote many, vote all!
marianofavazza.com
Max Harmony
Friday, 12th December 2008 at 6:36 PM
The last time I checked Darlene Green was elected, not appointed. And not considered to be a part of Slay’s administration.
Mike Reid
Wednesday, 17th December 2008 at 4:03 AM
Lets start thinking out the box people. I am tired of the same names running for office. This is why St. Louis looks the same. We are too damn nostalgic about the old days (ie What High School did you go to?)
Does your name have to be related to (or have worked for) a politician here to a viable candidate. Last time I looked being a politician was not a genetic trait.
Fresh talent like Orvin Kimbrough should run. He has worked as a community organizer with Faith Beyond Walls and now is with United Way. He is young fresh and intelligent. He has been through the wringer and has a dynamic message for all. He holds degrees in social work, business, and I think Divinity. He could generate young voters here, he has work hard to bring people of all races and faiths together.
He could secure votes in the central corridor he has worked with many in that area. He will have the support of many political leaders because they have seen his work in Jefferson City and in St. Louis.
This is just my humble opinion
flyover
Friday, 19th December 2008 at 1:28 PM
does this site ever post anything new?
Antonio D. French
Friday, 19th December 2008 at 10:29 PM
Not until the new year, Flyover. I’m on hiatus.
Happy holidays.
lloyd burton
Saturday, 20th December 2008 at 8:28 AM
Coleman would have her work cut out for her. However if anyone has ever met her- they know the warm and smart women she is. If she can get some grassroot support built up quickly- she has a fighting chance
southsider
Saturday, 20th December 2008 at 3:07 PM
I don’t in any way mean to deny the reality of the north/south history and voting along racial lines, but do know that not every southsider is automatically going to vote white, and certainly not for Slay at this point. It would be a beautiful thing if those of us who are disgusted at being considered supporters of Slay simply because we share pale skin could all show him that we aren’t lemmings, and if we could actually carry some south side wards for his opponent. The biggest problem will be that there is more than one opponent. Maida and Irene need to figure out which one it will be if they are serious about getting rid of him. Probably Irene is the one who needs to step back for the reasons we all know, whether that’s fair or not. I hope she can see that for the greater good.
McMillan, you blew it. By not running now you showed us you value politics over what’s good for the city. You’ll never have my vote again.
And I totally agree with Mike Reid. Let’s hope by the next mayoral election we see the new names, faces and ideas. It’s the city’s only hope.
flyover
Tuesday, 23rd December 2008 at 12:56 PM
Well then, Merry Christmas. See you next year.
Mwilliam2661
Friday, 2nd January 2009 at 8:50 AM
Every person residing in the City of St. Louis will be better off for having Senator Maida Coleman willing to put herself out there and challenge Slay. She is the most compassionate - common sense - hard worker for the publilc that I know. I have had the pleasure of working with her for 5 years and knowing her since she was in high school - watching her raise three young children with no help from an x and still obtianing her degree and each child a college education. Sure she has had financial difficulties - is there any one of us who hasn’t? But she worked hard to find a job - pay her debts off and continue as a productive citizen. No one can hold these things against her, especially in today’s financial times. The City of St. Louis is her pride and joy and she has been distressed at the dismanteling of the schools - she is an advocate for each and every person in the City of St. Louis - all nationalities - homeless, underserved and those more fortunate using tax credits who demand support letters spontaeously when they have failed to get their applications in on time. Yes, Maida Coleman i s to be admired for not taking the easy way out for herself and taking a big appointment and living on easy street while her beloved City of St. Loius continues to deteriorate under Slay. Every Citizen should be sending her a thank you not and asking what they can do to help - It doesn’t matter if you have money - Remember Obama - it is the grass roots effort and hard work and that Maida has everyone beat hands down.
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